Farmers React: The Election

Corn Belt farmers answer the question: will the outcome shape the future of your farm?

I reached out to farmers I know in the Corn Belt, asking them a simple question: "Do you think this election's outcome will shape the future of your farm?" Spoiler alert: the potential resurgence of trade tariffs under former President Trump if he is re-elected are a top of mind for many.

With two recently published reports—one from the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association and another from North Dakota State University—farmers now have detailed evidence of what they already feared: these tariffs could wreak havoc on agricultural exports, further driving down farm income and destabilizing rural economies. The reports predict devastating losses, with US soybean prices falling by nearly $1 per bushel and corn by 13 cents under a 60% tariff scenario, translating to billions in lost revenue.

Here’s what the farmers said:

• “The impact would be significant on income and in turn our farm operation. Trump would impose tariffs that would once again shrink grain sales overseas.  Congressional Republicans would reduce farm conservation programs.  The opposite occurs if Democratic candidates are elected.”
  
  - John Clayton, farmer growing corn, soybeans, and CRP fields in Brooklyn, Iowa.

  
  

• “What to expect? Heavens forbid, if the orange idiot wins, I shudder to think of the chaos, market instability, trade damage and worldwide upheaval from both military hostilities and worsening climate catastrophes. If Harris wins, I expect continued work by the FTC on anti-competitive business practices, a continued focus on dealing with climate issues, and stable business and market environments.
  
  Having said that, I need to add that significant but unforeseen things will undoubtedly happen, regardless who is elected. For instance, no one expected that our prime soybean market would be destroyed during Donny's first term, but we are now the world's residual supplier of most crops. I also didn't expect to get hooked up to fiber optics any time soon, but thanks to the IRA, we now have quality, affordable high-speed service.  
  
  I knew Trump couldn't get through a term without some major event that he would totally cock up. I didn't expect a pandemic, but true to form, he turned it into a nine-alarm dumpster fire. If there is a next time, when he faces an emergency, the results will be worse.
  
  I really expect that if Harris wins, she will actually make progress toward settling current wars. I think she has a better approach, and will provide needed leadership on the world stage.”
  
  - John Gilbert, diversified livestock and crop farm in north central Iowa's Hardin County. 
  

  
  

  
  

• “I believe the upcoming election will have a profound impact on my farming operation. Previously, the Trump administration did more to negatively impact the farm markets than any other administration in history and this cost taxpayers billions of dollars in record amounts of bailouts. His proposed tariffs for the future would only amplify the problems even more. Meanwhile, the current administration has created and implemented policies that benefit family farmers. I personally worked on some of these campaigns and I firmly believe that this will continue with Kamala Harris in the White House.”
  
  - Kevin Fulton of Clear Creek Land & Livestock in Litchfield, Nebraska.
  
  

• “My mom always says that its more important to manage what happens in your house (and your farm) than what happens in the White House. We survive either way. We have made the most progress on Truth in Labeling and Antitrust since Teddy Roosevelt with the Biden Administration. Kamala Harris has not committed to either yet. It's hard to get very fired up about either candidate because I don't see either being highly advantageous to a direct marketing livestock farmer, USDA processing plant owner, and utility scale solar grazer. My issues are always subsidy reform, antitrust enforcement, truth in labeling, and inspection reform. We didn't get any of those with the previous Trump administration. And what we did get on those with the Biden administration, neither the current administration nor Harris have been willing to message and talk about them being a good thing.”
  
  - Greg Gunthorp, artisanal farmer and processor and utility scale solar grazer raising pigs, poultry, and sheep in northeast Indiana.
  
  

• “I believe in fair trade and that if Former President Trump is elected, the tariffs he is proposing will devastate my farm along with all of my neighbors. Corn and soybean prices will plunge. We are still feeling the effects of his previous tariffs and if imposed again, we will permanently lose foreign markets, the long-term downside to his policies will cripple rural America.”
  
  - John Whitaker, corn, soybeans, wheat, hay, cattle, and natural hog farmer in Van Buren and Henry Counties in southeast Iowa.
  
  

• “Biden has done little to help small farms or change the agribusiness model, but rather promoted agribusiness marrying up with big gas, through the inflation reduction act —which promoted digesters, methane gas production, and ultimately incentivized more manure production. Manure value $$$ has surpassed milk value, which continues to tank in consumer popularity. 
  
  If there is a second Trump term, “drill baby drill” promised by Trump would equate to pushing out remaining small farms, and continued widespread expansions of corporate, consolidated agribusiness, while regulatory measures would be non-existent. Trumps deportation rhetoric will fall flat with the dairy industry’s workforce — who will not be sent packing despite continued posturing to do so.
  
  A Harris presidency would be a continuation of the current agribusiness model, with no real changes, the continued promotion of profits and yield production of foodstuffs — devoid of nutrient density — for a nation overwhelmingly growing in its physical and mental health crisis’. 
  
  Depleted soils, depleted aquifers, and extreme weather will continue to be our greatest challenges, along with the challenge of growing food that has lost 70% of its nutrient density since WWII. Mass contamination of our nations ground and surface waters, worsened by widespread PFAS in soils and water will further threaten human health and water quality. 
  
  Water, clean water & water scarcity are the #1 issues of our time.”
  
  - Lynn Utesch, grass-fed beef and rotational grazing farmer in Kewaunee, Wisconsin.
  
  

• “I don't see the outcome of the Presidential election having a major impact on the future of my farm. Ag policy from both administrations have proven to be about over-production, over-reliance on exports, and inherent incentives to consolidation. Trump's tariff policy might shine a brighter light on the over-reliance on exports, but it seems there is bi-partisan willingness to make up the difference to farmers with taxpayer dollars. There is potentially more hope for continuation of the Biden administration's anti-trust enforcement with Harris' election, but this is significantly in question with the calls from her donors to fire FTC chair Lina Khan. Harris has also utilized current Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack as a surrogate on the campaign trail, which gives me concern that her ag policies would carry his influence and doubt that they would be anything else but friendly to large corporate interests.
  
  My bigger concern for the future of my farm would come with the election of more MAGA Republicans in the legislature that would threaten my ability to access health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.”
  
  - Derek England, Grade A dairy farmer with 30 cows and 300 acres of row crops in Edina, Missouri.
  

  
  

• “Yes, it might. If we don't get a new farm bill that supports more conservation programs or at least keeps them up to current levels, we may lose some of those acres to cropping.”
  
  - Lee S. Tesdell, farming alfalfa, Kernza, prairie strips, row crops in corn/soy rotation, sheep, and the sun for solar power in central Iowa.
  
  

• “Yes. The government is always looking for new sources of tax revenue. A "cow tax" has been discussed and I believe establishment policies will bring us in that direction. Cows are under attack because they allow small scale farmers to be profitable and self-sufficient. A cow tax would change that for a lot of farmers.”
  
  - The Durt_Farmer (Instagram) at Mastodon Farm, farming cows, pigs, chickens, turkeys, honeybees and vegetables in southeast Michigan.
  
  

• “Yes, this year's election will definitely shape the future of our farm. It's very difficult to know what the impact will be, but there are many things on my mind.
  
  First, I'm running for the Iowa State House. Whether my neighbors elect me to represent them will greatly affect how I spend my time, and therefore our family farm. 
  
  Then, at the federal level, we're watching for a new farm bill. Both the US House as well as the Presidential elections will have a lot to do with both the farm bill itself, and what the USDA does in the next few years. I am very concerned with the tariffs that Mr. Trump has threatened, as I think they will devastate the farm economy.”
  
  - Tony Thompson, corn and soybean farmer, as well as local foods through an on-farm food hub (Prudent Produce), in Elkhart, Iowa.
  
  

• “Yes, it's definitely going to affect us. We’re either going to have an administration that's going to support us in helping with export opportunities and help us with finding markets for our goods, or we're going to have an administration talk about us and make us really feel good and then not do anything other than hurt us.
  
  I'd rather go with the known than the freaking Wild West of a person saying tariff is their favorite word in the dictionary. That is scary.”
  
  - Anonymous Iowa farmer.

  
  

• “Every election brings with it a certain level of uncertainty.  My farm has struggled with inflation as a whole the past several years.  Fuel prices, equipment parts, production input costs, have all went up.  I am afraid if things don’t change generating a living off the land will become even harder.”
  
  - Ron Mardesen, farming corn, beans, and pigs in southwest Iowa.
  
  

• “This election has big implications for every farm and small town. Our farm will be watching the results to see if there will be continued investments in rural America, including conservation and market development initiatives. In addition the election will determine if we will seriously deal with monopolies in agriculture. The election will also tell us if we will return to more and more tariffs that use U.S. farmers as pawns in a renewed trade war which drives down prices we receive on the farm. In addition, the election will tell us if big oil will again have a leg up on our renewable fuel industry.”
  
  - Aaron Lehman, Iowa Farmers’ Union president farming corn, soybean, oats and hay in central Iowa.
  

Next week, paid-subscribers will receive a special election issue. Stay tuned for more.